*Update in April, October each year*
India's GDP has steadily risen to become the world's fifth-largest economy at a CAGR of 5.5%. IMF, S&P Global, and Morgan Stanley have predicted that India will become the world's third-largest economy in 2027. According to IMF statistics, India's GDP in 2023 will be US$3.57 trillion, with an economic growth rate of 7.8%. The IMF estimates that India's GDP in 2024 will be US$3.94 trillion, with an economic growth rate of 6.8%.
India's industrial structure accounts for 15% of agriculture, 31% of manufacturing, and 54% of service industry. India has low labor costs, abundant software talents, and fluent English, which promotes IT The outsourcing services industry has flourished and become globally renowned. Currently, the proportion of the manufacturing industry is low, and there is a lack of high-quality and high-productivity job opportunities. In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi proposed the Make In India policy, striving to make India Build into a world factory and drive the development of the manufacturing industry.
The proportions of India's GDP expenditures are consumption 62%, investment 31%, government expenditure 10%, exports 23%, and imports 26%. The main growth momentum comes from consumption and investment. Whether India's domestic demand market can overgrow, the relevant focus includes the young population structure, the growth rate of per capita income, the speed of infrastructure investment, the technological content of foreign investment, the generation of high-quality job vacancies, Wealth Inequality, and other factors.
Please log in or upgrade your membership to get more details.
*Update in April, October each year*
According to the IMF, per capita gross domestic product will be US$2,500 in 2023, and India is expected to grow at a CAGR of9.4% to US$4,280 in 2029. According to United Nations statistics, India's population of 1.428 billion people in 2023 has officially surpassed China's 1.425 billion people, becoming the world's most populous country. India's population structure is strong, with a relatively high proportion of young people. The median age of the population is about 29.5 years old, which means that 50% of the population is under 30 years old.
The biggest problem in India is that the growth rate of GDP per capita cannot keep up with the growth rate of the population. Compared with other populous countries, India's GDP per capita is only about 1/5 of China and only about 1/30 of the USA. Because there are not many high-quality job opportunities in India, most of the vacancies are low-quality jobs, which cannot drive growth in per capita income.
Please log in or upgrade your membership to get more details.
*Update in April, October each year*
The CPI is the basis for calculating inflation and represents the average price changes for all households purchasing consumer goods and services. The Core Inflation is the price change after excluding food, beverages, and fuel, the trend is relatively stable. The annual growth rate of CPI is an important indicator for observing the degree of inflation and the strength of people’s purchasing power. The inflation rate is an important indicator for the RBI to observe price stability. The current inflation target is 4% ± 2%.
The CPI is compiled by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation and is calculated based on fiscal year 2012. Its main components and weights include food and beverages (about 30%-40%), tobacco and alcohol (about 1%-2 %), clothing (approximately 6%-7%), housing (approximately 20%), energy (approximately 5%-6%), and others (approximately 30%), of which the CPI weight is recompiled every five years based on consumer expenditure surveys. India's inflation rate (CPI annual growth rate) in March 2024 was 4.85%, down from 5.09% in February. Except for the growth of food and beverage items, which remains high, the growth of other items has gradually slowed down. In addition, due to the recent resumption of conflicts between Israel and Iran, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran, it will affect the crude oil supply, cause oil prices to rise, and increase the probability of imported inflation in India.
Please log in or upgrade your membership to get more details.
*Update in April, October each year*
The WPI represents the wholesale price index, which measures changes in commodity transaction prices among producers and can be used as a leading indicator for observing changes in consumer prices. India's WPI consists of three major categories, including food items (approximately 15%-16%), energy items (approximately 13%-15%), and manufacturing products (approximately 60%). It is calculated based on the fiscal year 2011.
According to data released by the Department For Promotion Of Industry And Internal Trade of India, the WPI inflation rate in March 2024 was 0.53%, up from 0.2% in February. The current annual growth rate of energy projects and manufacturing products has fallen back to negative growth, and only food products have maintained positive growth. In the future, we will continue to observe whether the United States and Britain ban the import of aluminum, copper, and nickel metal products exported from Russia, as well as the conflict between Israel and Iran, to further push up global commodity prices.
Please log in or upgrade your membership to get more details.
*Update in April, October each year*
India's FDI in fiscal year 2022 was US$46.03 billion, down 22% from fiscal year 2021. The top three investing countries are Singapore (US$17.20 billion), Mauritius (US$6.13 billion), and the USA (US$6.04 billion). US dollars); India's current industrial structure is still dominated by the service industry, followed by manufacturing. Among them, the top three FDI industries in the manufacturing industry in fiscal year 2022 are computer software and hardware (US$9.39 billion), pharmaceuticals (US$2.06 billion), and Automobiles ($1.90 billion).
Based on the observation of cumulative investment from fiscal year 2000 to 2022, India's main FDI in manufacturing is computer software and hardware (US$94.91 billion) and automobiles (US$34.74 billion); in addition, ignoring Mauritius, The main investment countries are Singapore (USD 148.17 billion), USA (USD 60.20 billion), and the Netherlands (USD 43.76 billion).
Please log in or upgrade your membership to get more details.
*Update in April, October each year*
India's main export commodities include petroleum-related products, APIs and vaccines, diamonds, Telecom instruments, and gold-related products. In fiscal year 2023, the USA is India's largest export market, accounting for approximately 21.1% of exports, followed by the UAE (9.7%), the Netherlands (6.3%), China (4.6%), and Singapore (4.2%). India's main imported commodities include crude oil, gold, petroleum-related products, coal, and electronic components. In fiscal year 2023, China is India's largest source of imports, accounting for approximately 17.9%, followed by Russia (10.7%), the USA (8.6%), the UAE (7.0%), and Saudi Arabia (5.7%).
India has had a trade deficit in recent years, and the trade deficit has expanded year by year. Oil and natural gas, coal, and high-end electronic components (such as chips, etc.) all rely on imports. The trade deficit in fiscal year 2023 (April 2023-February 2024) was US$224.576 billion, which was equivalent to the trade deficit in the same period last year.
Please log in or upgrade your membership to get more details.
